Breeding Program Updates
In 2025, progress with the Wiltshire breeding program was mixed.  I made the somewhat difficult decision to cull some AI-born ewes that were not meeting my standards.  These culls resulted in the flock being at 26% Wiltshire at the end of 2025 - up only slightly form 2024.

However, important progress was made.  We added the following to the flock in 2025:

• (1) 75% ram (Line 2)

• (3) 75% AI-born ewe lambs

• (3) 5/8 AI-born ewe lambs

• (9) 50% ewe lambs (7 AI-born, 2 natural born)

• (9) 3/8 ewe lambs

• (15) 1/4 ewe lambs

For 2026, (22) first-generation, AI-born Wiltshire ewes were inseminated with Generation 2 semen.  Hopefully, we will get a nice crop of 75% ewe and ram lambs from these.

The Charollais program is also underway.  We now have (6) AI-born ewe lambs as well as a 75% ram lamb.  For 2026, we inseminated 32 ewes with Charollais semen.  This will nearly complete the first generation semen, leading to a good crop of 50% rams in 2026 as well as some 75% Charollais ram lambs being available in 2027.

I discontinued using Clun Forest rams at the end of the 2025 breeding season.  I plan to use Wiltshire and/or Charollais rams to breed ewe lambs going forward.  Cluns are very good for breeding ewe lambs, but I think the higher percentage Wiltshire rams and finer-boned Charollais will perform just as well in terms of lambing ease.

Market Commentary - 2025 and 2026

The lamb market was strong in 2025.  Imports were down about 8% and domestic production increased about 1%.  Slaughter weights continue to decline, which is great to see. 

Looking forward to 2026, I expect that lambs prices to remain similar to 2025.  Cold storage levels remain in check and domestic production is not likely to increase significantly.  Imports are expected to remain flat of even decrease slightly. 

It is my opinion that it is critical to the US sheep industry's success to continue to improve the quality of our lamb.  I believe that the two most critical factors are genetics and proper feeding/marketing.  Lambs need to be meaty with limited fat and bone.  Breeds should be selected that can meet these requirements.  In addition, lambs should be harvested at about 6 months or less. 

For 2025, the average weight of US lamb will be around 120 lbs.  This is a big improvement from an average weight of 147 lbs in 2012.  For reference, lambs under 80 lbs or over 110 lbs are usually discounted in major lamb producing countries.  Clearly, more work is needed to improve the quality and consistency of US lamb.   For that reason, I'm leaving the 2022 Market Commentary below on my website - to help people better understand the lamb market dynamics.

Market Commentary - 2022

The lamb market crash of 2022 was the worst I've seen in more than 30 years of raising sheep.  Prices plunged about 60% in just a couple of weeks time.  The crash was so abrupt that it was impossible to avoid devastating losses.  Record high feed prices further increased losses.

What happened?  While live lamb prices did decline globally, the drop was particularly steep in the US market.  The global drop can be attributed to a slowdown in discretionary spending due to high inflation.  But the severe collapse in prices paid to US producers has deeper, more sinister roots.

There are several factors that make American lamb more vulnerable to downturns.  Generally, American lamb is more expensive than imported lamb.  This was not a key factor in the 2022 crash.  In fact,  the USDA reported that American lamb meat sold at or near record prices.  As I write this, the Carcass Cutout Equivalent price of a lamb carcass is $4.65/lb.  At a 50% yield, that would translate to about $2.33/lb live weight!  Meanwhile, the price paid for live lambs is about half this price, resulting in record profits for packers.

How can this situation happen in a free market system?  Shouldn't competition limit packer margins?  The problem is that the lamb market is not a functioning free market.  There are only a few packers that operate within the traditional lamb market in the US.  These packers own many feedlot lambs as well.  Trouble started in 2021, when lamb prices reached very high prices on light supplies.  Large feedlots, including packers, raced to acquire a supply of lambs, driving prices even higher.  Then, as the market began to recede, they had tens of thousands of old crop lambs that had very high break-even costs.  To pay for the losses, they reduced buying new crop lambs and pushed their old crop lambs through the system.  The goal was to restrict supply of American lamb meat for sale to shore up the price of these old crop lambs.  As a result, producers of new crop lambs subsidized the failed gambles of these large feedlots and packers.  Any remaining losses were shouldered by the taxpayer, with Section 32 purchases of lamb/mutton to be distributed through food programs.

All of this has happened numerous times in the 30+ years I've been involved in the sheep industry.  And each time it has the same result - bankrupted producers and loss of market share to imported lamb.  How is it possible that imported lamb continues to displace American lamb, despite being shipped from half a world away?  Imported lamb has 3 advantages over American lamb:

1.  Higher quality.  Lamb from every country in the world, except the US, is quality-controlled to ensure that it is indeed lamb and not mutton.  In the US, lamb packers have negotiated a system with the USDA that allows them to sell more than 50% of the supply as "un-graded lamb".  That is, more than half of lamb leaving packing facilities is not graded at all, because it is yearling and mutton being sold as lamb.  The remaining US lamb that is graded, is graded against much looser standards than New Zealand, Australia, Canada and EU and would classify as Yearling.  In summary, American lamb quality is generally inferior to imported lamb because large feedlots and packers refuse to acknowledge the international consensus on lamb definition and quality standards. 

2.  Lower cost.  Australia and New Zealand are almost perfect places to raise sheep.  The climate is more suitable and there are less predator concerns.  In addition, the cost of living in these countries is significantly lower than in the US.  Transportation costs offset these advantages some.

3.  Higher supply.  NZ has about 10 times as many sheep as the US and Australia has about 25 times.  These countries are set up to export lamb in high volumes.  Combined with stringent quality standards, they are formidable competitors.

How can US producers navigate this difficult environment?  Firstly, we must voluntarily produce lamb meat that is competitive with imported lamb.  While large-framed American breeds can yield very high quality meat, packers will generally mix them with old crop lambs and yearlings.  As a result, the producer does not get paid for the quality they produce.  It is my opinion that producers should aim to produce lambs of similar quality to imported lamb.  These lambs are generally less than 110 lbs live weight and very well muscled.  Its very unlikely that packers will voluntarily pay producers for such high quality lambs.  So, our best bet is to sell these lambs direct to consumers, sales barns or other non-traditional slaughter channels.